With 1,000 French Troops Participating: Major Military Exercises in Poland in Preparation for Post-Ukraine War Phase

Poland is hosting extensive military exercises from November 9 to 22 under the name "Koalicja 26.2," involving approximately 2,800 military personnel from eleven European nations, including nearly 1,000 French soldiers. These drills serve as the initial and foundational training exercise for the "Multinational Force for Ukraine" (MNF-U), part of the "Coalition of the Willing" established in February 2025 and comprising 35 nations aimed at ensuring sustainable peace once combat operations conclude.

Coincidence with Peace Negotiations and Discouraging Signs

These exercises coincide with the announcement by U.S. Envoy Steve Witkoff of new trilateral negotiation sessions between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States on November 10 and 11 in Abu Dhabi under American sponsorship. However, French experts downplay the likelihood of a substantive breakthrough. Stéphane Audrand, an associate research fellow at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), noted that "the exercise should not necessarily be linked to diplomatic moves, as not much is expected from these new negotiations."

This view is shared by André Filler, professor at the French Institute of Geopolitics at Paris 8 University, who explained that the continued presence of Vladimir Medinsky at the head of the Russian negotiating delegation reflects Moscow's lack of serious commitment to this track, suggesting that outcomes are unlikely to go beyond the continuation of prisoner exchanges or limited understandings regarding Black Sea navigation.

Force Missions and a Prominent Role for the French Army

The multinational force operates under joint French-British command and is qualified to mobilize and deploy up to 20,000 personnel if necessary. The French Ministry of the Armed Forces stated that any operational deployment of this force would primarily focus on dispatching military trainers to rebuild and bolster Ukrainian forces, conducting air security missions to facilitate the resumption of civil aviation, and executing mine-clearing operations to normalize maritime navigation.

Political Messages and European Divisions

The exercises carry clear political significance; analysts emphasize that they are a show of force aimed at sending a direct message to Moscow that Europe—with its two nuclear powers, France and Britain—cannot be sidelined from the negotiating table, and that it has become Ukraine's primary backer, fully prepared to deploy on the ground if circumstances require.

Nevertheless, these ambitions face critical questions regarding European nations' actual willingness to take risks on the ground amid divergent perspectives. While Paris pushes for a purely European initiative, Berlin and London prefer conditioning their involvement on prior U.S. security guarantees, at a time when Washington continues to show outright refusal toward any direct involvement there.