Military Aid to Ukraine: The Populists’ Two Lies

Most European populist parties want to stop military aid to Ukraine, which they view as both ruinous and dangerous. They argue it costs taxpayers a fortune and merely prolongs the conflict by delaying Kyiv's inevitable defeat. Both arguments thrive on the war weariness spreading through European public opinion. Yet, they are false.

In reality, the aid carries little weight. For France, it has amounted since the 2022 Russian invasion to roughly two billion euros per year for bilateral military assistance, and six billion when adding France's share of the aid provided to Kyiv by the European Union. Scrapping it would offset only a tiny fraction of the state budget deficit (€130 billion this year). Even for Germany, whose bilateral aid to Ukraine is four times higher than that of France, the sum tops out at 1.3% of federal government spending.

Above all, far from impeding peace, European aid fosters its arrival. Consequently, accelerating it would be advisable. The Kremlin will not negotiate seriously until it understands that its objectives cannot be achieved by force of arms. Conversely, the halt in US aid decided by Donald Trump in 2025 did not advance the cause of peace by a single inch.

Populists put forward another argument: abandoning Ukraine to its fate would ease Europeans' wallets by allowing them to import cheap Russian gas once again. This ignores the fact that gas prices are soaring because of the war in the Gulf and not the conflict in Ukraine. It also overlooks that "cheap" Russian gas carried a prohibitive cost: geopolitical dependence, the consequences of which the EU is still paying for.

Cards for Europe to Play

Putin is counting on Western support for Kyiv to wane over time. He believes that Ukraine will eventually drop like ripe fruit. The facts seem to prove him right. The longer the war lasts, the crueler it becomes for civilians, and the more Europe looks away. The victory of the pro-Russian candidate in the Bulgarian presidential election on November 1 bears witness to this. In Germany, AfD leader Alice Weidel claims that "90% of Germans oppose the continued squandering of their tax money in Ukraine." In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s pro-Ukrainian stance is increasingly contested. But the real weak link is France, where Marine Le Pen, leading in voting intentions for the 2027 presidential election, advocates ending military aid to Ukraine "within six months" of potentially entering the Élysée.

Where populists do have a point is that the EU pays but does not decide. Putin and Trump, who hold it in contempt, agree on sidelining it from settlement talks. Initial attempts by Europeans to engage in direct discussions with the Kremlin yielded nothing. This was the case once again on October 27 with the phone call made to Putin by the Finnish and Norwegian presidents. Nevertheless, Europe has cards to play. It is the primary provider of aid to Ukraine; it holds more than €200 billion in frozen Russian assets that, with a bit of boldness, it could use; it stands ready to offer security guarantees to Ukraine to consolidate a ceasefire; and it will be indispensable when the time comes to rebuild the country.

Populists fail to recognize that aid to Ukraine is no longer merely a matter of solidarity with an attacked European country. Its defeat would undermine continental security, cementing both NATO's impotence and the EU's strategic irrelevance. Realism dictates that Russia must lose, as it is the only chance to halt its imperial ambitions and force a change of regime. Europe's ability to exercise independent sovereignty is at stake in the steppes of the Donbas. If they were truly patriots, populists would understand this.