Spain: Right and Far-Right Lead Polls Ahead of November 29 Snap Elections

The latest opinion polls in Spain indicate the potential end of eight years of Socialist rule, as right-wing and far-right forces assert a dominant position just days before the official launch of the campaign for the snap legislative elections scheduled for November 29.

According to the latest estimates by the Sigma Dos institute for the newspaper El Mundo, the People's Party (PP) ranks first as the leading political force with 31.0% of the vote, securing between 131 and 137 seats out of 350 in the Congress of Deputies. Meanwhile, the far-right Vox party is projected to win 19.4% of the vote, translating to 62 to 70 parliamentary seats.

These findings align with another survey by SocioMétrica published by El Español, confirming a victory for the People's Party led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo with approximately 32% of the vote (136 seats). Vox is also expected to secure around 66 seats (18.9%), doubling its presence compared to the 2023 elections when it obtained only 33 seats (12.4%). Consequently, an alliance between the right and the far-right could form a parliamentary bloc of nearly 200 seats, comfortably exceeding the absolute majority threshold of 176 seats.

Socialist Decline and Mounting Pressure on Sánchez

On the other hand, polls place the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), led by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, in second place with around 25% of voting intentions, granting it between 101 and 108 seats. The figures also reveal that the bloc supporting his government is no longer able to secure an adequate majority; SocioMétrica estimates that this entire coalition would not exceed 145 deputies, marking a decline of 34 seats compared to the 2023 results.

Sánchez, who has held power since 2018, faces a daunting challenge to remobilize the left-wing voter base, particularly amid successive government crises that intensified following the tragic train disaster in Urda on October 28, which claimed 69 lives and led to the resignation of Transport Minister Óscar Puente on November 3. However, the accident did not negatively affect his party's figures; a study published on November 9 by 40dB for El País and Cadena SER revealed a slight gain for the Socialists of 1.8 points, bringing them to 29.9%.

Right-Wing Alliance Raises Questions and Thorny Issues

Despite the remarkable surge in polling figures, a right-wing victory does not guarantee the formation of an explicit coalition government. Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of the People's Party, stated in an interview with El País: "It is very clear to me, the best thing for Spain is a government led solely by the People's Party." While not completely closing the door to cooperation with Vox, Feijóo pointed to fundamental differences concerning abortion, the sensitive concept of 'national preference' regarding immigrants and foreign residents, as well as divergent stances toward U.S. President Donald Trump.

These developments come after Pedro Sánchez decided to bring the legislative elections forward to November 29 instead of their original date in 2027, following parliament's rejection in early October of two urgent measures aimed at addressing the country's worsening housing crisis.