"I Am Plan B": Thierry Breton Eyes the Élysée with a Vision Focused on Debt and Enforcing Deportations

At a time when the right-wing and centrist camps in France are clearly struggling to put forward unifying figures, whispers echo behind the scenes in Paris regarding the ambition of former Economy Minister and European Commissioner Thierry Breton to enter the presidential race. Breton, who is around seventy years old and known for his mathematical precision and obsession with time management and calculating the "seconds of life," refuses to officially declare his candidacy today, stating that he is "light-years away from a presidential bid." However, he hints: "Today I am not a candidate; tomorrow, I do not know," stressing that he has always been the "Plan B" the state turns to for complex files and difficult tasks.

Immigration and OQTF: No Need for New Laws

While immigration policies and residency procedures preoccupy foreign communities and immigrants in France, Breton is working behind closed doors drafting policy memos covering vital sectors such as education, healthcare, defense, nuclear energy, and immigration. Those close to him convey his conviction that it is futile to keep passing consecutive new immigration laws, asserting in his private discussions that what is required is merely firmness in applying and executing the Obligation to Leave French Territory (OQTF) orders piled up in the authorities' drawers, without additional legislative complications.

The "Golden Rule" to Curb Deficits and Debt

The public debt file represents Breton’s biggest obsession, as he views himself on a mission to rescue France from its financial crisis and confront major global powers. The former minister is actively promoting what he terms the "golden rule," which would mandate that the state cap its fiscal deficit at no more than 2% of GDP by 2032. Breton does not stop at calling for austerity and fiscal discipline; he is seriously seeking to enshrine this rule within the French Constitution to reassure financial markets. This prompted him to head to the Élysée Palace on October 28 to formulate a proposal calling for convening an extraordinary Congress of the French Parliament in Versailles, bringing both chambers together to pass the constitutional amendment.

Extensive Outreach Across the Political Spectrum

In recent months, Breton has become a figure meeting virtually all key players without exception; he has engaged in dialogue with Bruno Retailleau, Gabriel Attal, Édouard Philippe, and former President François Hollande, alongside far-right representatives such as Jordan Bardella and Jean-Philippe Tanguy, extending to Marine Le Pen, whom he boasts of having persuaded to adopt fiscal discipline and the "golden rule" during her recent meeting with business leaders in late August.

Between Calculating Numbers and the Street Test

Despite his extensive ties with figures like François Bayrou and François Baroin, and his long-standing experience as finance minister under President Jacques Chirac and European Commissioner overseeing sensitive briefs between 2019 and 2024—such as confronting Big Tech and regulating vaccines—observers believe Breton’s path is far from smooth. The man, who attempts to don the mantle of an economic savior in the mold of Mario Draghi, lacks a direct partisan base and faces lukewarm reception in some business circles regarding his past track record at Atos, in addition to former political rivalries, notably with former President Nicolas Sarkozy. This leaves the prospect of his candidacy contingent on the evolution of the political landscape and the performance of rivals in the run-up to the electoral battle.